Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 28.596213 31.500952 34.711915 38.551106 43.051901 48.205580 54.618522
2025-07-27 24.300893 28.189792 32.843692 38.927841 46.835538 57.012278 71.540411
2025-08-03 21.194242 25.509602 30.982060 38.643733 49.471282 64.889868 89.935797
2025-08-10 18.946048 23.450757 29.425067 38.262328 51.661158 72.537470 110.921183
2025-08-17 17.380460 22.018176 28.405374 38.315960 54.328083 81.505073 138.236251
2025-08-24 16.010269 20.657950 27.255113 37.901563 56.057702 89.315648 167.725223
2025-08-31 14.894376 19.519844 26.257804 37.512677 57.667030 97.338358 203.141491
2025-09-07 13.953219 18.533615 25.358016 37.111075 59.115300 105.486139 245.730113
2025-09-14 13.183963 17.727112 24.637441 36.883052 60.807392 114.767815 301.561207
2025-09-21 12.445292 16.903133 23.801028 36.322162 61.700058 122.523535 362.411277
2025-09-28 12.218764 16.842144 24.179951 37.990632 67.617678 145.955744 536.527390
2025-10-05 11.683194 16.252400 23.620475 37.812225 69.411426 158.800941 693.305135
2025-10-12 11.214443 15.748246 23.180546 37.847308 71.834742 175.515005 954.680092
2025-10-19 10.870023 15.422387 23.021107 38.426791 75.791660 200.544533 1491.724359
2025-10-26 10.439799 14.926526 22.518322 38.231024 77.724164 219.712289 2232.612562
2025-11-02 10.026156 14.432543 21.978637 37.887705 79.195775 238.525562 3481.767805
2025-11-09 9.701678 14.068848 21.646907 37.953174 81.875594 265.934621 6752.460141
2025-11-16 9.342486 13.625302 21.133240 37.549405 83.083180 287.555186 13833.965620
2025-11-23 9.013084 13.215456 20.653736 37.167707 84.292239 311.182333 39835.638271
2025-11-30 8.705683 12.828174 20.190751 36.772256 85.387100 336.191931 312980.888583
2025-12-07 8.438984 12.498925 19.817368 36.547576 87.026369 368.114567 NaN
2025-12-14 8.153203 12.122790 19.329282 35.994282 87.416975 392.107822 NaN
2025-12-21 8.119093 12.190932 19.716769 37.640369 96.292087 509.803428 NaN